BASELINE & REFERENCE Scenario for EU Energy Trends for 2030

Baseline ScenarioThe effects of the financial and economical crisis on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in EU Member States are explicit, with a clear GDP loss that will not be recovered. The economic recovery is expected for 2013-2015. World fossil fuel prices are considered higher than in the previous version, with 88 USD/bl in 2020 and 106 USD/bl in 2030, whilst gas and coal prices are expected to follow the same pattern.

A detail of all policies underlining the scenarios can be found in the report itself. Some technological improvements are considered such as smart metering and advanced transmission and distribution grids, Petrol Hybrid Electric Vehicles and Electric Vehicles on the market for transportation of passengers and freight. No breakthrough is anticipated in technology development, but costs and efficiencies are improving.

The EUR to USD exchange rate remains around 1.25 for the whole period.

RES part in 2020: 26% and 2030: 32.1 % (Gross power generation by source).

Solar electricity could reach 46 TWh in 2020 and 75 TWh in 2030. Solar electricity includes Photovoltaics (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP). According to the average European irradiation and the current location of the PV market, this corresponds to around 42 GW in 2020 and 68 GW in 2030.

The 2007 Baseline scenario forecasted 9 TWh in 2020 and 17 TWh in 2030 solar electricity (respectively 8 GW and 15.5 GW).

Reference Scenario
The Reference scenario mentions the “considerable development” of solar Photovoltaics.

It includes the same assumptions as the Baseline scenario but takes the new policies into account (those modified between April and December 2009). The European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) carbon prices are slightly lower than in the Baseline scenario.

RES part in 2020: 32.6 % and 2030: 36.1 % (Gross power generation by source).

Solar electricity could reach 62 TWh in 2020 and 94 TWh in 2030. Solar electricity includes PV and CSP (respectively 56 GW and 85 GW).

Due to the shares of variable RES, the share of intermittent electricity production amounts to 16% in 2020 and 20% in 2030.

Even if this scenario represents a real progress for PV with regards to the Baseline 2007 scenario, the coherency of the scenario with the National RES Action Plans is not guaranteed at all: the 19 first countries that published their scenarios have a combined target of 80 GW by 2020, to be compared with the 56 GW of the Reference scenario and the 42 GW of the Baseline scenario. In addition, the PV deployment in Europe would be slower after 2020 than before. This is surprising, given the fact that by 2020 PV could be competitive in more than 75% of the EU electricity market without incentives, according to EPIA’s SET For 2020 study.

Electricity prices remain almost identical in 2020 and 2030 due to the decrease of costs and the increased penetration of RES, despite higher investment. This conclusion was already drawn in European Climate Foundation’s (ECF) Roadmap 2050 scenarios which showed that the increase of renewable energy in general, with high shares of PV, does not increase the overall electricity prices in the EU, paving the way for a higher PV share in the electricity mix.

GLOBAL TRENDS 2030 - THE WORLD IN 2030

The world in 2030 will be divided into three areas:

1-A Globalizing area (51.5 % of the population, 74.5% of the world GNI) with a growing middle class.

2-A backward area dominated by Islamism ( 34.5% of world population and only 3.5% of world GNI) with low incomes, economic regression and chaos

3-A declining area (European Union and South America: 14% of the world population and 22% of the world GNI).

The LCROSS mission

NASA has selected a final destination for its Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) which will impact the crater Cabeus A on 9 October.

LCROSS will search for water ice by sending its spent upper stage Centaur rocket to impact the permanently shadowed polar crater at the lunar south pole, while the satellite will fly through the plume of debris thrown up by the impact to measure its properties. After the first impact, and just four minutes later, the LCROSS satellite will too meet its fate in the crater, while the Moon-orbiting Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and Earth-based telescopes look on in the search for watery signatures. Shrouded in darkness for billions of years, this is the first time that such pristine material will be exposed to sunlight.

Close up of Cabeus A near the Moon's south pole. Image: NASA/JPL.

The LCROSS mission will reach fruition on 9 October. Image: NASA.

The LCROSS mission is a search for water on the moon. The LCROSS mission is going to do this by sending a rocket crashing into the moon causing a big impact and creating a crater, throwing tons of debris and potentially water ice and vapor above the lunar surface. This impact will release materials from the lunar surface that will be analyzed for the presence of hydrated minerals which would tell researchers if water is there or not. The two main components of the LCROSS mission are the Shepherding Spacecraft (S-S/C) and the Centaur upper stage rocket. The Shepherding Spacecraft guides the rocket to a site selected on the moon that has a high probability of containing water. Because they have only one chance with this mission in finding water, the researchers have to be very precise where they program the Shepherding Spacecraft to guide the rocket.

resources: www.astronomynow.com/news/n0909/14LCROSS/
http://lcross.arc.nasa.gov/mission.htm

Facebook is an extremely effective marketing tool

Australian online advertising firm, uSocial wants to help companies get more friends on Facebook by making them pay to attract members.

"Facebook is an extremely effective marketing tool," said Leon Hill, uSocial CEO. "The simple fact is that with a large following on Facebook, you have an instant and targeted group of people you can contact and promote whatever it is you want to promote."

"The only problem is that it can be extremely difficult to achieve such a following, which is where we come in," added Hill.

The company offers packages starting with 1,000 Facebook friends for $177 up to 10,000 friends for $1,167. read more

Russia will concentrate on a State Arms Program

Russia will concentrate on a State Arms Program to be carried out by 2015. One of the program's priorities is to equip the armed forces with high accuracy weapons.
At first glance, it seems that the plans and legislative initiatives fully correspond with military-technical achievements. The latter include the development of the non-nuclear tactical Iskander missile (NATO reporting name SS-26) for the ground troops.
Last June, Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces General of the Army Alexander Maslov said that under the Arms Program until 2015 the missile and artillery forces will receive five missile brigades, each equipped with the Iskander-M missiles (NATO reporting name SS-26 Stone).
Defense Ministry planners have now made the unmistakable conclusion about the need to reduce the range or the quantity of military hardware. I have strong doubts that the reduction will affect the range - modern Russian arms have been reliably hidden into the golden cage of export contracts. T-90 tanks in the Russian armed forces can be counted on the fingers of one hand. But 310 of these tanks have already been produced for India, and there are contractual commitments to supply it with another 347. The Iskander system is no exception. It has long been popular in the Middle East.
If the situation remains the same, our tanks will leave our tank-training grounds, and our surface aircraft will land on foreign ships. But the effectiveness of our own program of rearmament will be close to zero.
reff. taken from :Andrei Kislyakov (The Moscow News)