Baseline ScenarioThe effects of the financial and
economical crisis on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in EU Member
States are explicit, with a clear GDP loss that will not be recovered.
The economic recovery is expected for 2013-2015. World fossil fuel
prices are considered higher than in the previous version, with 88
USD/bl in 2020 and 106 USD/bl in 2030, whilst gas and coal prices are
expected to follow the same pattern.
A detail of all policies underlining the scenarios can be found in the report itself. Some technological improvements are considered such as smart metering and advanced transmission and distribution grids, Petrol Hybrid Electric Vehicles and Electric Vehicles on the market for transportation of passengers and freight. No breakthrough is anticipated in technology development, but costs and efficiencies are improving.
The EUR to USD exchange rate remains around 1.25 for the whole period.
RES part in 2020: 26% and 2030: 32.1 % (Gross power generation by source).
Solar electricity could reach 46 TWh in 2020 and 75 TWh in 2030. Solar electricity includes Photovoltaics (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP). According to the average European irradiation and the current location of the PV market, this corresponds to around 42 GW in 2020 and 68 GW in 2030.
The 2007 Baseline scenario forecasted 9 TWh in 2020 and 17 TWh in 2030 solar electricity (respectively 8 GW and 15.5 GW).
Reference Scenario
The Reference scenario mentions the “considerable development” of solar Photovoltaics.
It includes the same assumptions as the Baseline scenario but takes the new policies into account (those modified between April and December 2009). The European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) carbon prices are slightly lower than in the Baseline scenario.
RES part in 2020: 32.6 % and 2030: 36.1 % (Gross power generation by source).
Solar electricity could reach 62 TWh in 2020 and 94 TWh in 2030. Solar electricity includes PV and CSP (respectively 56 GW and 85 GW).
Due to the shares of variable RES, the share of intermittent electricity production amounts to 16% in 2020 and 20% in 2030.
Even if this scenario represents a real progress for PV with regards to the Baseline 2007 scenario, the coherency of the scenario with the National RES Action Plans is not guaranteed at all: the 19 first countries that published their scenarios have a combined target of 80 GW by 2020, to be compared with the 56 GW of the Reference scenario and the 42 GW of the Baseline scenario. In addition, the PV deployment in Europe would be slower after 2020 than before. This is surprising, given the fact that by 2020 PV could be competitive in more than 75% of the EU electricity market without incentives, according to EPIA’s SET For 2020 study.
Electricity prices remain almost identical in 2020 and 2030 due to the decrease of costs and the increased penetration of RES, despite higher investment. This conclusion was already drawn in European Climate Foundation’s (ECF) Roadmap 2050 scenarios which showed that the increase of renewable energy in general, with high shares of PV, does not increase the overall electricity prices in the EU, paving the way for a higher PV share in the electricity mix.
A detail of all policies underlining the scenarios can be found in the report itself. Some technological improvements are considered such as smart metering and advanced transmission and distribution grids, Petrol Hybrid Electric Vehicles and Electric Vehicles on the market for transportation of passengers and freight. No breakthrough is anticipated in technology development, but costs and efficiencies are improving.
The EUR to USD exchange rate remains around 1.25 for the whole period.
RES part in 2020: 26% and 2030: 32.1 % (Gross power generation by source).
Solar electricity could reach 46 TWh in 2020 and 75 TWh in 2030. Solar electricity includes Photovoltaics (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP). According to the average European irradiation and the current location of the PV market, this corresponds to around 42 GW in 2020 and 68 GW in 2030.
The 2007 Baseline scenario forecasted 9 TWh in 2020 and 17 TWh in 2030 solar electricity (respectively 8 GW and 15.5 GW).
Reference Scenario
The Reference scenario mentions the “considerable development” of solar Photovoltaics.
It includes the same assumptions as the Baseline scenario but takes the new policies into account (those modified between April and December 2009). The European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) carbon prices are slightly lower than in the Baseline scenario.
RES part in 2020: 32.6 % and 2030: 36.1 % (Gross power generation by source).
Solar electricity could reach 62 TWh in 2020 and 94 TWh in 2030. Solar electricity includes PV and CSP (respectively 56 GW and 85 GW).
Due to the shares of variable RES, the share of intermittent electricity production amounts to 16% in 2020 and 20% in 2030.
Even if this scenario represents a real progress for PV with regards to the Baseline 2007 scenario, the coherency of the scenario with the National RES Action Plans is not guaranteed at all: the 19 first countries that published their scenarios have a combined target of 80 GW by 2020, to be compared with the 56 GW of the Reference scenario and the 42 GW of the Baseline scenario. In addition, the PV deployment in Europe would be slower after 2020 than before. This is surprising, given the fact that by 2020 PV could be competitive in more than 75% of the EU electricity market without incentives, according to EPIA’s SET For 2020 study.
Electricity prices remain almost identical in 2020 and 2030 due to the decrease of costs and the increased penetration of RES, despite higher investment. This conclusion was already drawn in European Climate Foundation’s (ECF) Roadmap 2050 scenarios which showed that the increase of renewable energy in general, with high shares of PV, does not increase the overall electricity prices in the EU, paving the way for a higher PV share in the electricity mix.
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